20% less inventory: how AB InBev makes 85% of its demand plans touchless
01 · INGEST
Sales history, POS, distributor sell-through, promotions, price, weather, calendar events
02 · ENRICH
Correct censored demand (stock-outs logged as zero), build features: lags, seasonality, promo flags
03 · FORECAST
Ensemble (gradient boosting + deep learning) → a probabilistic forecast at SKU-location-week
04 · GATE
Auto-commit only the forecasts above the confidence threshold; these run touchless into the plan
05 · ROUTE
Everything below the line (new SKUs, promos, anomalies) goes to a human demand planner
- Domain
- Supply chain / CPG
- Gating eval
- Backtest WMAPE + Forecast Value Added; auto-commit only above a confidence threshold
- Primary failure
- Censored demand and silent drift — looks fine, compiles into the plan, quietly stale
- Status
- PRODUCTION
AI-driven demand forecasting behind a confidence gate: an ensemble produces a probabilistic forecast per SKU-location-week, and only the predictions above a confidence threshold commit touchless — everything else routes to a human planner.
Source: usecaseinai analysis. Operational figures are o9 Solutions' AB InBev case study (vendor-reported, marked in-text). Independent ranges are from McKinsey operations research. (Swap in the Substack long-form URL once live.)